Weekend Review – Volatility Indexes and ETPs – 7/24/2016

VIX was the biggest mover among the four S&P 500 related volatility indexes this past week.  VIX dropped more than 5% while VXST lost 0.39% and VXV was down 1.19%.  Longer dated volatility actually rose last week with VXMT gaining 0.28%.  The curve remains very steep which I’m taking as uncertainty abounding with respect to the balance of 2016, especial the fourth quarter of 2016.

VXST VIX VXV VXMT Curve

 

Most the data points on the table below are as one would expect after a relatively quiet week.  VVIX moving up is a bit surprising, but the upper 80’s has been a common area for VVIX this year.  At least when VIX is hovering around the low end of this year’s range.

VXX Table

 

The year to date performance for VXX and UVXY continues to suffer from the low volatility environment while SVXY is now up over 19% for the year.  It should be noted that SVXY has not recovered from the hit taken last fall and is still much lower than the all-time high of 97.40 just over a year ago.

UVXY SVXY VXX

 

The table below ranks the full suite of volatility indexes quoted by CBOE based on their performance last week.  Oil Volatility was the big gainer, but even in the high 30’s is at the lower end of the recent range.  Gold was a close second which may indicate some inflation fears are emerging.  At the opposite end of the table are VXIBM and VXGS which dropped after IBM and GS reported earnings last week.

Vol Indexes

 

Finally, I came across an interesting trade that is taking a longer term look at volatility moving down.  With VXX at 11.11 someone sold the VXX Jan 2017 20 Calls for 0.85 and then purchased the VXX Jan 2017 12 Puts for 2.95 and a net cost of 2.10.  This trade works out with VXX below 9.90 on the third Friday of January next year.  Interestingly I think that’s this expiration coincides with the next presidential inauguration.  I doubt the two are connected, but you never know.

VXX PO

Weekend Review – VIX Futures and Options – 7/24/2016

Last week VIX broke the 12 level, which surprised some market participants who felt 2016 was going to be a roller coaster ride that kept VIX at elevated levels.  I have already spent time on the Wall of Shame as I count as someone who felt VIX was spend more time around 20 than it […]

Weekend Review – VIX Futures and Options – 7/17/2016

With VIX testing 2016 lows this past week the soon to be retired July future headed lower at a slightly faster rate than VIX dropping 6.43% versus 4.02%.  Even with the bigger loss on the week the July contract finished the week at more than a one premium to VIX.  We will see on Wednesday […]

Weekend Review – Volatility Indexes and ETPs – 7/17/2016

Short term volatility was the big loser among the four S&P 500 related volatility indexes as VXST lost over 10% last week.  This was more than two times the drop in VIX and more than three times the drop in VXV and VXMT.  The result is a pretty darn steep curve indicating concerns about the […]

New SPX Monday-Expiring Weeklys Options To Launch Next Month

CBOE recently announced that it plans to list S&P 500® Index (SPX) Monday-expiring WeeklysSM options, beginning August 15, pending regulatory approval.  With the expected introduction of SPX “Monday Weeklys,” CBOE will offer SPX options with Monday, Wednesday and Friday expirations. SPX Weeklys are one of CBOE’s fastest-growing products, with volume in 2015 setting a 10th […]

What is Volatility Saying about the Price of Gold?

I’ve kept my eye off gold this year and boy have I missed a ride. The GLD ETF is up about 28% in 2016 which leaves most markets in the dust. Apparently #Gold is a trending topic today on Twitter as well. S0 even though the shiny metal is higher, is there any opportunity being anticipated for […]

Weekend Review – VIX Options and Futures – 7/10/2016

VIX finished the week at 13.20 – only 0.10 higher than lowest 2016 close of 13.10.  The front month (July) futures contract was down slightly more than VIX this past week.  Anecdotally I’ve noticed in the past when we see VIX down significantly in reaction to the employment number that the front month contract seems […]

Weekend Review – Volatility Indexes and ETPs – 7/10/2016

I was participating in the Vol Views podcast Friday around lunch time and decided to take a look at the whole suite of volatility indexes and see if anything was higher.  None of the 29 volatility indexes CBOE quotes were higher at that time and none of them finished higher on Friday.  The list below […]

Weekend Review – Volatility Indexes and ETPs – 7/3/2016

In hindsight volatility definitely overshot to the upside in response to Brexit and the price action on Monday where VIX and the S&P 500 both moved lower together was a sign of things to come last week. The 42.66% drop in VIX was the biggest week over week drop on record (going back to 1990). […]

Weekend Review – VIX Futures and Options – 7/3/2016

The curve below is what happens when you have the biggest week over week drop for VIX on record. The 42% loss in VIX shattered the previous largest drop of 36.53% which occurred in the last week of 2012. Not so coincidentally both were weeks before a three-day weekend. Late Monday, with the July VIX […]

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