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VXTYN in Front of the Fed Decision

Tomorrow in the middle of the afternoon the markets will brace, take a deep breath, and then parse the wording of the press release from the Federal Reserve.  Consensus is that the Fed Funds target rate will stay in the 0.00% – 0.25% range where is has been since December 2008.  The real focus seems to be what sort of indication there will be about the continuation of stimulus programs.  There also seems to be some real uncertainty around how the financial markets will react tomorrow.

Back in May the CBOE/CBOE 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Volatility Index (VXTYN – 6.11) was introduced to the marketplace.  This index is an indication of expected volatility of 10-year Treasury Note Futures.  Although VXTYN was introduced in May there is historical data going back to January 10, 2013 available on the CBOE’s website.  Using this data we can see what VXTYN did going into and after the three Fed announcements from this year.  Notice a little bit of elevated activity and then a slight sell off as indicated by the three green circles in the chart below.  Now note the red circle (that you can’t miss).  VXTYN is elevated, just off the highest levels this year.  Maybe the statement doesn’t change, but the anticipation (or uncertainty) going into this announcement is definitely different this time.

VXTYN

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Vol Indexes Up +17% So Far This Month – VHSI, VCAC, and VXEWZ – By Matt Moran

June 14, 2013 — Volatility indexes that have risen more than 17% so far this month include the VHSI – HSI Volatility Index (Hong Kong), the VCAC – CAC-40 Volatility Index (France), and the VXEWZ – CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index. On the other hand, the OVX – CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index has fallen [...]

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New CBOE/CBOT 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Vol. Index (VXTYN) by Matt Moran

May 23, 2013 — Today a press release announced that CBOE began disseminating values for a new volatility benchmark index using futures options data on CME Group’s 10-year U.S. Treasury note contract.  The CBOE/CBOT 10-year U.S. Treasury Note Volatility IndexSM (ticker symbol VXTNYSM) is the first volatility index based on U.S. government debt to be [...]

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Consumer Sentiment Index Hits Highest Level Since 2007 – By Matt Moran

May 17, 2013 — A report on Bloomberg news on Friday noted that –  “Consumer confidence rose in May to the highest level in almost six years as an advancing stock market and cheaper gas prices helped lift Americans’ outlook on the economy.   The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to [...]

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SPX Tops Its First 100-Point Milestone in 13 Years – By Matt Moran

An interesting way to look at trends in the S&P 500® (SPXTM) Index is to look at the dates on which it first closed above its 100-point milestones. As shown in the table below, the SPX first closed above 200 in Nov. 1985, above 500 in March 1995, above 1000 in Feb. 1998, and above [...]

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Volatility Skewness Can Impact Hedging Costs – By Matt Moran

On Monday April 15th — the price of gold plunged 9.4% (its biggest daily drop in 30 years), the price of silver fell 11.3%, the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ) rose 61.7% (a record one-day move), and new all-time records were established for daily trading volumes for VIX® futures, VIX options and GVZ futures.  [...]

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Record Daily Volume for GVZ and VIX Futures, as GVZ Jumps 61.7% – By Matt Moran

MONDAY, APRIL 15 — More one-day records were set today – Futures on the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) set an all-time single-day volume record of an estimated 449,955 contracts. CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ) futures contract traded a single-day record of an estimated 1,488 contracts. GVZ – CBOE Gold Volatility Index had an all-time [...]

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VXSLV Up 30% and GVZ Up a Record 39.4% on Friday – By Matt Moran

On Friday April 12th – The CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ) rose 6.03 points to close at 21.32. The 39.4% rise was an all-time record for a one-day % rise for the GVZ Index.  CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ) Security Futures now are offered for trading. The CBOE Silver ETF Volatility Index (VXSLV) [...]

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Strong Options Volume Growth for Both SPX (Up 22%) and VIX (Up 48%) By Matt Moran

Both the S&P 500® (SPX) and the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) index options experienced strong volume growth in the 1st quarter of 2013 compared with the 1st quarter of 2012 – SPX options average daily volume rose to 809,067 (up 22%) and VIX options average daily volume rose to 633,811 (up 48%). PUT/CALL RATIOS It [...]

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Total VIX Futures Volume Sets Record for 3rd Month in a Row By Matt Moran

A record 3,220,977 futures contracts on the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) traded during March, exceeding the 3,062,344 contracts traded in February (the previous record) by five percent. March’s VIX futures volume rose by 64 percent when compared to the 1,963,893 contracts traded a year ago.  VIX futures have set all-time total volume records for three [...]

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