Is September the Cruelest Month for Stock Investors? – By Matt Moran

The highly regarded 1922 poem “The Waste Land” by T.S. Eliot begins —  “April is the cruelest month, breeding lilacs out of the dead land, mixing memory and desire, stirring dull roots with spring rain.”

What has been the cruelest month for stock investors? While October has a reputation for being a volatile month with some of the worst stock market crashes, there is some strong evidence to suggest that September has been the month that has had the weakest stock index returns over several decades.

Below are two charts that show the average percentage change per month for the 23-year period from 1980 through 2012. September was the month with the worst performance for the S&P 500®, while August and September were the two best months for changes in the gold spot prices.

Month by m for VIX Views

A 2011 piece at MarketWatch noted that —

“… Since 1896, for example, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA was created, the Dow has lost an average of 1.07% in September. The average gain for all other months is 0.71%. That spread of 1.78 percentage points is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to determine if a pattern is most likely genuine. … it was more than 20 years ago that (as far as I can tell) the first academic study appeared in which September’s significantly below-average return was noted. Since that study was completed, the spread between September’s average return and that of all other months has been even wider than it was up until that point.  …”

The percentage changes for the S&P 500 Index the past five Septembers were —

  • -9.1%                     2008
  • 3.6%                      2009
  • 8.8%                      2010
  • -7.2%                     2011
  • 2.4%                      2012

POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS

If an investor is concerned about a possible big drop in stock prices over the next month, what can the investor do?  One could sell stock and invest in money market instruments, but there can be tax consequences for investors with appreciated stock, and interest rates for money market investments are quite low.

Listed options can serve as flexible, powerful and efficient tools to hedge portfolios and add income to smooth out returns.  Protective strategies include, collars, long SPX protective puts, and  long VIX calls.

PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR INDEXES IN SEPTEMBERS FROM 1990 THROUGH 2012

The strategies of adding options premium income or long VIX exposure to portfolio have the potential to cushion the fall of stock index declines. In Septembers over the past 23 years, the average % change for five options-based indexes were higher than the average change for the S&P 500 —

23 Sept for VIX Views

For more information on the CLL, BXM and PUT benchmark indexes, and white papers on use of index options to help navigate challenging markets, please visit www.cboe.com/benchmarks

The posts on this blog are opinions, not advice.
Please read our disclaimer for Indices.

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