TYVIX Weekly Review: Nothing Like a Yuan Devaluation to Invigorate Volatility

After last week’s doldrums, the Chinese government’s surprise devaluation of the yuan breathed life into CBOE’s VIX Suite: VIX, TYVIX, EUVIX, BPVIX and JYVIX. Volatilities fluctuated as the events of the week unfolded – initially climbing on Tuesday when the devaluation occurred and prompted a number of analysts to suggest the Federal Reserve’s target rate increase could be deferred to next year. Volatilities in VIX and TYVIX subsided somewhat in midweek following mostly positive U.S. economic releases (U.S. July retail sales were up 0.6 percent, July industrial production also was up 0.6 percent and the July producer-price index was up 0.2%), but volatilities nonetheless finished the week higher than last Friday. The currencies group saw similar trepidations, but only JYVIX has advanced from last Friday.

Figure 1: Weekly Volatility Update

It Was the Second Time This Year That a FX Shock Hit the VIXes

TYVIX2

Following Futures on Treasury Volatility
Since their inception in November 2014, futures on TYVIX have followed the tribulations of the spot index and this week is no different.  With a relatively flat term structure, the average levels of current and future expected volatility are now converging to 6, close to their median value since last November.

Figure 3. Futures on TYVIX (Ticker VXTY)
TYVIX3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Post written by Catherine Shalen, CBOE Research

Barron’s Discusses VIX Weeklys

This past weekend Steven Sears committed the whole Striking Price column in Barron’s to VIX Weeklys. I would strongly suggest checking out the full column, as well as reading it every weekend as it is a great way to learn more about options. Some highlights include –

  • Weekly VIX futures contracts were introduced July 23th and the options are expected to begin trading on October 8th
  • The shorter dated VIX futures are expected (and already have been) to track spot VIX more closely than longer dated futures
  • This shortening of the time to expiration for the nearest VIX future will create more opportunities to gain exposure to VIX for both futures and options traders

As an example this past Wednesday was the first settlement day for VIX Weekly futures. The standard August contract will settle on August 19th. The chart below shows daily closing prices for VIX and settlement values for the short dated August 5th and August 19th contract.

VIX Weekly

The chart shows daily closing prices from the July 23rd launch through August 4th, the day before AM settlement for the August 5th futures. Note the spike on the left and how the Aug 5th contract moves up in line with VIX and how it also fades lower in line with VIX. It is early in the game for short term VIX futures, but the evidence shows those that want long exposure to VIX, in anticipation of a ‘spike’, or traders who like to take the other side of the periodic spikes in VIX will be well served by the consistent availability of VIX futures with just a few days remaining until expiration.

TYVIX: Is Fed Fatigue Setting In?

As market participants returned to the view this week that a September (rather than December) fed fund hike may be more likely, backed up in part by an as-expected U.S. July employment report on Friday, expected Treasury volatility measures through December 2015 decreased, but just barely. At week’s end, the TYVIX Index was still about 1 index point below its value at the beginning of July, as were futures on TYVIX.  This suggests the 10-Year Treasury market is indifferent to whether the Federal Reserve hikes the federal fund rate in September 2015 or in December 2015.  That’s a real contrast with May 2013, when a Federal Reserve “taper” scare doubled the value of the TYVIX Index from around 4 to 8.

Figure 1: Term structure of expected Treasury volatility: TYVIX and futures on TYVIX (Ticker VXTY) since July 1, 2015. ty1 8-7-15Fig1

Diverging Reaction in Equity and Bond Markets

Very interestingly, the equity market is having the opposite reaction to a shift in current sentiment. VIX, the benchmark for equity volatility, is up for the week.

Figure 2. ty2 8-7-15Fig2

Equity Market More Nervous than Treasury Market? Term Structure of TYVIX Is Flatter, but Term Structure of VIX Is Not

Another interesting development is that the term structure of TYVIX futures has flattened.  In other words, one-month volatility is not expected to change much from today until the end of 2015, and there is little risk premium of December over August volatility. Ceteris paribus (all other things being equal), volatility futures are in contango, with December volatility more expensive than August volatility.  Now look at the term structure of VIX futures: It has shifted down since July 1, but has not flattened.

Figure 3:  Snapshots of term structures of TYVIX and VIX Indexes in early July and August 2015ty3 8-7-15Fig3

Volatility Indexes and ETPs Last Week – 8/9/2015

The over 1% drop in the stock market did not get traders too worried as VIX remains well under 14 and the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve maintained a distinct ‘normal looking’ curve. In 30 days we will be in early September, which is a time of year that often puts traders more on edge.

VXST VIX VXV VXMT

 

VIX did rise over 10% last week in response to the S&P losing 1.25%. As of Friday VXX was about 1/3rd August VIX futures and 2/3rds September VIX. Since the August contract rose only 2% last week and September was lower VXX was only up slightly for the week. This is the spot where I should begin singing the praises of VIX Weekly futures, but I’ll save that for another blog.VXX Table

 

Ten New CBOE Benchmark Indexes – Tools for Risk Management and Yield-enhancement

Today CBOE® announced in a press release that it has created 10 new options-based strategy performance benchmark indexes that are designed to highlight the long-term utility of options as risk management and yield- enhancing investment tools. CBOE will disseminate intra-day values for the new benchmarks beginning August 3, 2015 at the page www.cboe.com/benchmarks. The new benchmark indexes use popular S&P 500® Index (SPX) Weeklys options to create new versions of two of CBOE’s flagship strategy benchmark indexes — the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index (BXM) and the CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite (PUT) Index — as well as completely new risk-managed option selling strategies featuring S&P 500 Index (SPX) and CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) options.

CHART SHOWING LESS VOLATILITY

Six of the ten new indexes (as well as CBOE’s BXM, PUT and CLL indexes) have data history going back more than 29 years, to June 30, 1986.

While there still are some investors who think that all options strategies are inherently volatile and risky, a very striking fact is shown in Exhibit 1 below – all nine of the options-based benchmark indexes in the Exhibit had less volatility over the 29-year time period than the three “traditional” indexes – the S&P 500®, MSCI EAFE®, and S&P GSCI indexes.

Exhibit 1

1 - St Dev
DESCRIPTION OF TEN NEW BENCHMARK INDEXES

A description of each index follows:

1. CBOE S&P 500 Multi-Week BuyWrite Index (BXMW)
The CBOE S&P 500 Multi-Week BuyWrite Index is designed to track the performance of a weekly covered call strategy with staggered short positions in call options expiring in consecutive four week options. The BXMW Index is constructed as a combined portfolio of four mini BuyWrite indexes. Expirations are staggered so that the BXMW Index sells four-week options on a rolling weekly basis.
2. CBOE S&P 500 One-Week PutWrite Index (WPUT)
The CBOE S&P 500 One-Week PutWrite Index is designed to track the performance of a strategy that sells an at-the-money (ATM) S&P 500 Index (SPX) put option on a weekly basis. The maturity of the written SPX put option is always one week to expiry. The written SPX put option is fully collateralized by a money market account.

3. CBOE S&P 500 Zero-Cost Put Spread Collar Index (CLLZ)
The CBOE S&P 500 Zero-Cost Put Spread Collar Index is designed to track the performance of a low volatility strategy that 1) holds a long position indexed to the S&P 500 Index; 2) on a monthly basis buys a 2.5% – 5% S&P 500 Index (SPX) put option spread; and 3) sells a monthly out-of-the-money (OTM) SPX call option to fully cover the cost of the put spread.

4. CBOE S&P 500 Iron Condor Index (CNDR)
The CBOE S&P 500 Iron Condor Index is designed to track the performance of a hypothetical option trading strategy that 1) sells a rolling monthly out-of-the-money (OTM) S&P 500 Index (SPX) put option (delta ≈ – 0.15) and a rolling monthly out-of-the-money (OTM) SPX call option (delta ≈ 0.15); 2) buys a rolling monthly OTM SPX put option (delta ≈ – 0.05) and a rolling monthly OTM SPX call option (delta ≈ 0.05) to reduce risk; and 3) holds a fixed income account which is rebalanced on option roll days to limit the downside return of the index.

5. CBOE S&P 500 Iron Butterfly Index (BFLY)
The CBOE S&P 500 Iron Butterfly Index is designed to track the performance of a hypothetical option trading strategy that 1) sells a rolling monthly at-the-money (ATM) S&P 500 Index (SPX) put and call option; 2) buys a rolling monthly 5% out-of-the-money (OTM) SPX put and call option to reduce risk; and 3) holds a fixed income account which is rebalanced on the option roll day to limit the downside return of the index.

6. CBOE VIX Strangle Index (STGV)
The CBOE VIX Strangle Index is designed as a premium capture index. The index overlays short CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) call and put options with a capped long VIX call option position. The position is collateralized by fixing the number of strangles such that 80% of capital is reserved.

7. CBOE S&P 500 Covered Combo Index (CMBO)
The CBOE S&P 500 Covered Combo Index is designed to track the performance of a “short strangle” strategy collateralized by a portfolio holding a long position indexed to the S&P 500 Index and a fixed income account. The CMBO Index sells a monthly at-the-money (ATM) S&P 500 Index (SPX) put option and a monthly 2% out-of-the-money (OTM) SPX call option. The short put position is fully collateralized by the money market account and the 2% OTM SPX call is collateralized by the long SPX Index position.

8. CBOE S&P 500 5% Put Protection Index (PPUT)
The CBOE S&P 500 5% Put Protection Index is designed to track the performance of a strategy that holds a long position indexed to the S&P 500 Index and buys a monthly 5% out-of-the-money (OTM) S&P 500 Index (SPX) put option as a hedge.

9. CBOE S&P 500 30-Delta BuyWrite Index (BXMD)
The CBOE S&P 500 30-Delta BuyWrite Index is designed to track the performance of a yield-enhancement strategy that holds a long position indexed to the S&P 500 Index and sells a monthly out-of-the-money (OTM) S&P 500 Index (SPX) call option. The call option written is the strike nearest to the 30 Delta at 10:00 a.m. CT on the Roll Date. The BXMD Index rolls on a monthly basis, typically every third Friday of the month.

10. CBOE S&P 500 Conditional BuyWrite Index (BXMC)
The CBOE S&P 500 Conditional BuyWrite Index is designed to track the performance of a yield-enhancement strategy that holds a long position indexed to the S&P 500 Index and sells a monthly at-the-money (ATM) S&P 500 Index (SPX) call option. The written number of ATM call options will be either ½ unit or 1 unit and will be determined by the level of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX Index) when the call option is written on the Roll Date. The BXMC Index rolls on a monthly basis, typically every third Friday of the month.

MORE CHARTS ON INDEX PERFORMANCE

Exhibits 2 and 3 show that the new CBOE S&P 500 30-Delta BuyWrite Index (BXMD) had higher returns than the three “traditional” indexes – the S&P 500®, MSCI EAFE®, and S&P GSCI indexes.

Exhibit 2

2- Annual Ret
Exhibit 3
3 line chart
Exhibit 4 provides a histogram showing that the CBOE S&P 500 30-Delta BuyWrite Index (BXMD) has had fewer extreme moves (up or down) than the S&P 500 Index.

Exhibit 4

4 Histogram

MORE INFORMATION

Manager testimonials and a 2015 study on funds’ use of options can be found at www.cboe.com/funds.

More information about CBOE’s current and new benchmark indexes will be available next week at www.cboe.com/benchmarks.

Panel of Experts in NYC Discusses New VIX Weeklys Futures and Options — By Matt Moran

On July 16 in New York City, a panel of four volatility experts – Mark Chen, Managing Director, Citigroup; Joe Aiken, Managing Partner, Malachite Capital Management; Krag “Buzz” Gregory, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs; and Jim Lubin, Managing Director; CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC (CFE®), had a lively and upbeat discussion on the topic of Managing Portfolios with VIX® Weeklys Futures and Options.

0-Pics of 3 ExpertsCFE plans to list futures with weekly expirations on the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) beginning at 3:30 P.M. CT on Wednesday July 22 (this is the beginning of the July 23 trading day), subject to regulatory review. VIX Weeklys options at CBOE are expected to follow on a later date, also subject to regulatory approval. www.cboe.com/VIXWeeklys.

At the panel discussion, strong interest was expressed in being able to trade volatility products with more expirations around-the-clock, and much of the discussion focused on recent Sunday night VIX trading in reaction to weekend events in Greece.

Key points about the new VIX Weeklys futures and options include –

• The new VIX Weeklys futures and options will offer more expirations that have the potential to provide more precision and responsiveness for investors. There will be more expirations for VIX futures and options, with the expected convergence of VIX futures to the cash settlement price available four to five times a month instead of once a month.
• The addition of weekly expirations to standard monthly futures and options expirations offers volatility exposures that more precisely track the performance of the VIX Index.
• By ‘filling the gaps’ between monthly expirations, investors may obtain new opportunities to establish short-term VIX positions, and fine-tune the timing of their hedging and trading activities.
• The closer VIX futures and options are to expiration, the more closely they generally track the VIX Index.
• VIX Weeklys provide a natural extension of the VIX offering with a standard VIX term structure. VIX Weeklys offer investors additional short-dated volatility plays while leveraging an already liquid product.
• The beta, or measure of how closely the contract tracks the underlying, increases as it approaches expiration. That also means the Weeklys could be more reactive to the release of economic reports and other market-moving events. By adding more expirations, CBOE is giving investors additional opportunities to trade VIX futures with a high beta to the VIX Index.
• The new VIX Weeklys will be quoted in the same VIX chain on quote screens offered by Bloomberg and other quote vendors.

SAMPLING OF CHARTS DISCUSSED DURING THE PANEL
Below is a sampling of some of the many charts discussed during the panel.

FIGURE 1 – VIX FUTURES – DAILY VOLUME IN EXTENDED TRADING HOURS
After news broke on the weekend of June 27 that the banks in Greece would be closed, trading volume for VIX futures in the Extended Trading Hours session (5:00 p.m. (Sunday) to 8:30 a.m. (Monday)) spiked to 60,144 contracts. The panel noted that many volatility traders followed the VIX futures the night of Sunday, June 28.

1-VIX Futures ETH

FIGURE 2 –VIX INDEX AND VIX FUTURES ON JUNE 29
As shown in the table below, on the morning of June 29 the VIX Index rose 2.45 points and the July VIX futures were up 0.95.

2-VIX futures on June 29

FIGURE 3 – EXPIRATION DATES AND TICKER SYMBOLS
It is expected that this week there VIX Weeklys futures with expirations on Aug. 5 and Aug. 12 will be listed, and then later the VIX Weeklys futures with Aug. 26 expiration will be listed.

3- Expira Dates and Tickers

FIGURE 4 – BETA OF VIX FUTURES TO THE VIX INDEX
In an analysis of more than 2,700 dates, VIX futures had a beta of 0.79 with one day to the VIX standard expiration, while the VIX futures had a beta of 0.39 with 33 days to standard expiration.

4- Beta

FIGURE 5 – AVG. DAILY VOLUME FOR S&P 500 WEEKLYS OPTIONS
Several attendees and panelists noted that the strong growth in volume for S&P 500 Weeklys options could be a very good sign for the potential for growth of the VIX Weeklys futures and options.

5-SPX Weeklys adv

MORE INFORMATION
For more information regarding the new VIX Weeklys, please visit www.cboe.com/VIXWeeklys.

Last Week in TYVIX – 7/19/2015 by Catherine Shalen

TYVIX in the Aftermath of the October 15, 2014 Flash Crash

On Monday, July 13, staff members from the U.S. Department of Treasury, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission released a joint report on the exceptional Treasury volatility that occurred on October 15, 2014.

The behavior of the TYVIX Index since October 2015 provides a new angle to the story. Putting together the conclusions of the report and the views from the Street, the story is that banks’ paring of inventories of Treasury securities and high frequency trading may have accelerated the pressure from hedge funds that were unwinding short positions in Treasury futures and options. Predictably, on October 15, 2014, as the spot Treasury market was mired in what traders called a “gamma trap” from 9:30 a.m. to 9:45 a.m., the TYVIX Index surged. What is less predictable is the aftermath. First, the flash crash propelled the TYVIX to a higher range. Second, the pattern of variations of the TYVIX changed. As illustrated in Figure 1, the length and amplitude of TYVIX Index fluctuations increased compared with the preceding period. Whatever its roots, the jolt on October 15, 2014 energized TYVIX.

Figure 1: TYVIX On, Before and After October 15, 2014

CS - Fig 1

Last week’s storm is over. Greece got a reprieve, additional U.S. mixed economic data were released, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen confirmed that the Federal Reserve’s target rate for fed funds will gradually increase this year. This seemed to reassure equity, bond and FX markets: the TYVIX decreased by 15%, EUVIX decreased by 12%, BPVIX by 3% and JYVIX by 9%. The 10-year Treasury note yield also declined.

Figure 2: Current Week in Volatility

CS Fig 2 FIxed

 

In spite of this week’s volatility decline, the TYVIX Index still is above its values set in April 2014, when the index started to turn upwards. Interestingly, TYVIX has since underestimated the realized volatility of 10-year Treasury note futures. See Figure 3.

Figure 3: Expected Less Realized Treasury Volatility

CS Fig 3

Prices of TYVIX futures followed the same course as the TYVIX Index and fell throughout the week. As of the open on Friday, July 17, 2015, October 2015 TYVIX futures predicted average Treasury volatility of 5.80 in November 2015.

Figure 4: TYVIX and TYVIX Futures Pricing

CS Fig 4

Last Week in VIX – 7/19/2015

VIX closed at 11.95 which is the low for 2015 on Friday and below 12.00 for the first time this year. The week over week drop for VIX was 29% which is the third biggest one week drop in the history of VIX. The curve shifted accordingly, but do note with only two trading days to go the July futures finished the week just about a point higher than spot VIX.

VIX Curves

I’m away from CBOE this week, but never away from the markets. I did note via my twitter feed the history of the market the day after VIX moved under 12.00 intraday in 2015. It is not much of a history as Thursday was the third time this happened which was of course followed by Friday’s action. Here’s a brief review of what I tweeted out with an update for the Thursday and Friday price action.

  • May 22nd – VIX low was under 12 for the first time in 2015 – next trading day SPX was down 21.88
  • June 23rd – VIX low was under 12 for the second time in 2015 – next trading day SPX was down 15.61
  • July 16th – VIX low was under 12 for the third time in 2015 – next trading day SPX was up 2.35

So Friday broke the mini-streak of the S&P 500 dropping the day after the handle for VIX hit 11 on the day.

Next week the CBOE Futures Exchange will introduce futures contracts expiring every week. Options will follow in the next few weeks pending regulatory approval. I have been paying particular attention to trades executed in VIX options when expiration is just a few days off ever since the announcement that VIX Weeklys were on the way. On Friday, VIX was hovering around 12 (12.04) to be specific, and a pretty unique trade came into the VIX pit. There was a buyer of the 863 VIX Jul 12.50 puts at 0.25 who also sold 863 VIX Jul 12.50 Calls for 0.75. In addition they sold 3750 VIX Jul 13.00 Calls at 0.54 and purchased 3750 VIX Jul 14.00 Calls at 0.30. The net result of these trades was a credit (before commissions) of $133,150. I divided up the trades in the table below.

VIX Trades

The payoff diagram below is a slight deviation from the norm. Since the size for the 12.50 strike options is different than the 13.00 and 14.00 call positions I decided to display the payout in terms of dollars. The ultimate goal for this trade, if held to expiration, is that July VIX settlement comes in a low as possible. Anywhere below 13.20 results in a profit which, if the stock market holds up next week, looks likely with VIX closing Friday at 11.95.

VIX PO

Last Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs – 7/19/2015

Last week VIX did what I guess it is supposed to do and moved to very low levels to reflect that we are in the summer doldrums.   VIX dropped in a way it usually rallies and was down 29% last week for the third biggest one week drop since 1990. VXST was down over 43% as the curve went quickly from slight backwardation to contango.

VXST VIX VXV VXMT Curve

The long ETP’s got slapped around a bit with VXX losing 17% and the leveraged funds giving up about 33%. The inverse funds moved higher, but only by about 20% as that nasty daily performance resulted in a smaller gain than loss for the long funds.

VXX Table

On Thursday, VIX dropped below 12 for the third time this year. The last two times this happened the S&P 500 was down tremendously the next day. Now that Friday is behind us we know that the streak of big drops after VIX has an 11 handle on the day ended at 2 (is 2 actually a streak?). I did go searching for a trade using VIX ETPs that was hoping for a rally, which would be expected if the S&P 500 dropped quickly. Instead I came across a trade using UVXY options that had only one day remaining to expiration and worked if the fund dropped a little or gained a lot. With UVXY at 28.37 there was a buyer of the UVXY Jul 17th 29.50 Puts at 1.61 who also purchased the UVXY Jul 17th 34.50 Calls at 0.06 for a net cost of 1.67.

UVXY PO

This trader needed UVXY to drop 1.7% from where the fund was when they put on the trade or rally 29.6% just to break even. They also only had one day for this price action to occur in UVXY.   We know the S&P 500 was relatively quiet on Friday and the result was UVXY finishing the day at 27.52 which placed the 29.50 Puts solidly 1.98 in the money.

Last Week in TYVIX by Catherine Shalen

Every day Brings a New Twist to TYVIX, Benchmark for Treasury Volatility

The referendum in Greece on Sunday was a non-event for Treasury volatility. TYVIX opened at 6.70 on Monday, 1.82% above its closing value on July 2nd, but by 10:30, TYVIX was back to 6.58. Equity and FX volatilities were more reactive. VIX opened 11.08% higher, EUVIX 6.71% higher, JYVIX 5.74% higher and BPVIX 3.32% higher.

After this open, Treasury prices began a rally which lasted until Thursday, as investors responded to mixed employment signals and the cautious tone of the FOMC’s minutes. On Thursday, Fed fund futures implied a higher probability that the Fed Fund target rate would only be uncorked in January 2016. The pressure to sell Treasuries seemed off. In addition, uncertainty about the European Union was driving investors to safe Treasuries. The demand from buy and hold investors at Wednesday’s auction for 10 year Treasury notes was strong, and Lipper reported a net inflow of $3.130 into taxable bond funds for the week ending on July 8th.

Then on Friday morning, Greece’s new budget plan was out and Janet Yellen stated that the economy was ready for a rate increase this year. This broke the rally with the 10 year Treasury yields popping back to 2.39, about even with last Thursday. After the speech, TYVIX was down to 6.61 even with Monday’s close.

TYVIX 1

Figure 2 shows that the frequent twists and turns of Treasury futures since April 2015 have pushed TYVIX to a new higher level.

   Figure 2: Ten-Year Treasury Futures

TYVIX 2

VXTY futures that expire from July 2015 to October 2015 are still in a tight contango pattern. With so much uncertainty, the futures have been meandering gently upward over the last two months, much as TYVIX has.

   Figure 3: TYVIX Futures

TYVIX 3

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