Was Yesterday’s VIX Action Indicating Market Panic?

While most people were watching the markets today I was running from meeting to meeting and only had a couple of chances to check out what was going on in the markets. Usually on days like this we can hear extra volume (not numerical, but audible) at The Options Institute as our offices are just above both the VIX and S&P 500 pits. I do not recall one time today hearing any outburst of activity from the floor. Once the day was over and I had a moment to check on the markets I was honestly surprised to see VIX close under 20.00 today.

With the S&P 500 down 1.86% on the day VIX was up less than 12% for the day and was never up more than 20% on the day. Also, it appears that the high for the day in VIX was put in about 12:30 eastern time while the low for the S&P 500 came about an hour before the close. A late day new low in the S&P 500 did not add any fuel to the fire as far as VIX was concerned. A five minute chart showing the S&P 500 and VIX price action today appears below.

VIX - SPX 5 Min 01052015

One final assessment of today’s sell off comes by looking at how orderly the day was, there was not a moment of panic where several low levels were taken out. Conversely, VIX didn’t rocket up on panic buying of SPX option contracts. Today’s stock market sell-off can be called dramatic, but when checking in on VIX it would be a stretch to say there was any panic in the midst of today’s action.

2014 VIX Review

In 2014 VIX managed to reach the highest levels seen in over two years.  This happened despite a fairly bullish year for the S&P 500 with the index achieving a record high more than fifty times.  also, as seen below most of the VIX action occurred in the 3rd quarter after a fairly quiet summer.

VIX SPX

Some of the credit for pushing VIX higher goes to Vladamir Putin who decided to expand Russia a tad to begin 2014. Toward the end of the year the stock market became a bit more volatile. This increased volatility can be attributed to the impact of dramatically lower oil prices, the end of quantitative easing by the Fed, and the awareness that the current bull market run may be a bit overextended.  Despite the spikes above the average close for VIX in 2014 was actually a tad lower than in 2013.

VIX Table - Corrected

 

The chart below shows the high – low range for VIX over the past 25 years along with the average VIX for the year. The average for VIX in 2014 was a tad lower than 2013, but the range was much more dramatic. On July 3rd VIX closed at the lowest levels since the great financial crisis and this past fall VIX achieved the highest closing levels since 2012.

VIX Range by Year

CBOE experienced strong volume growth in VIX options trading in 2014 with average daily volume of over 630,000 contracts. This is a rise of 11.5% from 2013’s average daily volume of 568,000. I was surprised to see that October was not the busiest month for VIX options this year with average daily volume of 854,000.  The busiest month in 2014 was February as average daily volume was slightly higher than 856,000 contracts.

VIX Option Average Daily Volume

The CBOE Futures Exchange witnessed a record month in October with average daily volume of 323,000 contracts. 2014 was also a record year with average daily volume of just over 200,000 contracts. 2014 was a 26.5% increase over the average daily volume in 2013.

VIX Future Daily Volume - Corrected

Finally, I want to take a look at one of my favorite charts. The picture below shows the average VIX closing prices for 1, 5, and 10 years (specifically 250, 1250, and 2500 days) since 2000. Despite the low levels for VIX over the past couple of years the 10 year average is still just over 20. Also, what really stands out to me is the 1 year average which borders or the all-time low and seems to be turning higher.

VIX Averages The final final chart is below shows last year’s daily closing prices for VIX versus the longer term averages. Despite VIX being ‘broken’ (sarcasm emphasized here) VIX closed above and below all these longer term averages this past year. I think this last chart shows that VIX action hasn’t changed over the last 15 years despite arguments stating otherwise.

VIX vs Averages

For more insight and thoughts about 2014 join me for a 2014 volatility wrap up webcast this coming Monday (1/5/15) at noon Chicago time – register at www.cboe.com/webcasts – if you can’t make it at that time register anyway and you can access a replay a day or two after the webcast is over.

2014 Emerging Market Volatility Review

Despite the Brazilian market experiencing excessive volatility in 2014, the CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index (VXEEM – 22.26) was at relatively low levels. The iShares Emerging Markets ETF (EEM – 39.29) ended 2014 down a little over 3% which was better than many market observers were expecting. Also, note on the chart below that VXEEM ended the year about where it started the year, which stands out relative to many other volatility indexes which finished the year higher than where things started out.

EEM VXEEM

Relative to recent history VXEEM had a lower average than any of the previous years. This would probably be the biggest surprise of all the volatility markets with listed derivative trading last year. Especially when 2012 was a very positive year for EEM performance.

VXEEM Table For more insight and thoughts about 2014 join me for a 2014 volatility wrap up webcast this coming Monday (1/5/15) at noon Chicago time – register at www.cboe.com/webcasts

2014 Brazilian Volatility Review

The chart below shows what volatility does leading up to an uncertain election in an emerging market. The CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index (VXEWZ – 34.21) looked more like a chart of implied volatility for a one product biotech stock in front of a do or die FDA announcement. What happened after the election was a bit unexpected, at least by the author of this blog. Post—election volatility has remained high regardless of the performance of the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ – 36.57). Initially it seemed that the market was less enthusiastic about the reelection of Dilma Rousseff than the majority of Brazilians who voted for her. Since then lower oil prices and a series of company specific issues at Petrobras (PBR – 7.30) have resulted in elevated risk perceptions with respect to Brazil.

EWZ VXEWZ

The table below puts VXEWZ price action in perspective relative to the previous three years. Despite a move over 70.00 the average for VXEWZ was actually lower in 2014 than 2011. Relative to the other tradable volatility indexes VXEWZ was several points higher than the second most volatile market in 2014. Oil volatility, as measured by USO option pricing, averaged 23.05 in 2014. With elevated implied volatility and a consistent stream of bad news the Brazilian market may actually qualify under Baron Rothschild’s investment advice, “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets”

VXEWZ Table

2014 Nasdaq-100 Volatility Review

Of the three broad based market indexes that have tradable volatility markets, the Nasdaq-100 (NDX – 4236.28) was the clear winner in 2014. NDX rose almost 18% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 11.4% and the Russell 2000 gained only 3.5%. With the tech and biotech sector in favor for most of 2014 volatility as priced in by NDX options was relatively low.

NDX - VXN

The first thought I have when I look at the table below is disbelief. I’ve said this many times and I’m truly amazed that NDX has been down only one out of the last eleven years. 2008 (and early 2009) was such a tough time I guess it felt like more than just one bad year. The few volatility spikes we got in early and late 2014 were a bit more dramatic than those associated with the small stock market pull backs of 2013. The result was the average for VXN coming in almost a point higher in this year than last year. VIX made a post 2008 low, but VXN outdid VIX and made an all-time low (11.36) in 2014.

VXN Table

For more insight and thoughts about 2014 join me for a 2014 volatility wrap up webcast this coming Monday (1/5/15) at noon Chicago time – register at www.cboe.com/webcasts

2014 Russell 2000 Volatility Review

As tough as 2014 was for small cap stock performance as represented by the Russell 2000 (RUT – 1204.70) the index did manage to put up a positive year. At the end of the third quarter the RUT was down just over 5% on the year so all the gains (and then some) for small cap stocks came in the fourth quarter.

RUT RVX

For most of 2014 the risk perception for holding small cap stocks was justifiably high. I wrote about this earlier this week in a blog about what the CBOE Russell 2000 Index indicates about the prospects for small cap stocks going into next year. The link to that blog is at the end of this posting.

2013 versus 2014 is an interesting comparison for RVX. The index was 1.30 points higher this year that last year. Despite other volatility indexes putting in post 2008 lows, RVX did not follow suit. The only thing that really startles me on this table is that after all the negative press for most of 2014 the RUT managed a slightly positive year.

RVX Table

The blog regarding the risk perception for small cap stocks going into 2015 may be found at

http://www.cboeoptionshub.com/2014/12/30/everyone-loves-small-cap-stocks-market-say/

For more insight and thoughts about 2014 join me for a 2014 volatility wrap up webcast this coming Monday (1/5/15) at noon Chicago time – register at www.cboe.com/webcasts

2014 Oil Volatility Review

In 2013 it was gold, this year the price of oil took it on the chin and the result was the worst performance for the United States Oil ETF (USO – 20.36) since the dark days of 2008. There are all kinds of theories over what is actually going on in the energy markets. I’m going to keep mine to myself and focus on what the numbers say.

With USO dropping 42% in 2014 and most of that coming in the fourth quarter the CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX – 50.24) reached levels not seen since 2011. I usually do not like to post charts where the lines cross like the one below, but I don’t think a different scale would do justice to the move in OVX over the last few weeks of 2014.

USO OVX Corrected

CBOE has data going back to early 2007 on OVX. The average for 2014 was 23.05, which does not tell the story of where we are now with respect to oil volatility. This past year did witness the widest recorded high low range for OVX which is a function of just how complacent energy traders were at the beginning of 2014 and that OVX put in an all time low before things got interesting. They were anything but complacent at the end of 2014 as the average OVX close in December was 47.80 and the index finished the year over 50.

OVX Table As I said there are several opinions as to what is up with the price of oil. Whether it is to muzzle Putin with respect to his ability to use oil as a weapon or the desire of oil producing countries to put pressure on the fracking industry. The one thing we can agree on, with OVX over 50, is that the market expects more headline grabbing moves in the price of oil to begin 2015.

For more insight and thoughts about 2014 join me for a 2014 volatility wrap up webcast this coming Monday (1/5/15) at noon Chicago time – register at www.cboe.com/webcasts

2014 Gold Volatility Review

In 2014 the price of Gold did not have any of the headline grabbing moves like those that occurred in 2013. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD – 113.58) finished the year down a little over 2% and was down 1.4% on the last day of the year. If we had taken New Year’s Eve off GLD was have been practically unchanged on the year. The chart below shows the daily closing prices for GLD and the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ – 20.08) for this past year.

GLD - GVZ

If it were not for the fourth quarter this would be what I call a Seinfeld blog – about pretty much nothing. The increased implied volatility that occurred in GLD option trading to end the year was more about other markets than gold. A huge drop in the price of oil and increased global equity market volatility greatly influenced volatility in other sectors that did not experience the same sort of price changes. The gold market in the fourth quarter is a great example of how volatility in one market sector may influence the volatility of options in a loosely related market.

The table below will put GVZ action for 2014 in some context. We got a seven standard deviation move in the price of gold in 2013 and a break of several support levels which pushed GVZ to the mid-30’s. 2014 was a very range bound year for GLD and the result was the lowest average implied volatility over the almost seven year history that CBOE has for GVZ.

GVZ Table

One other thing that stands out on this table is the low for GVZ in 2014. The price action for GLD was range bound and VIX put in a post 2008 low this past year. One would guess that GVZ would follow suit. However, the low in 2014 was higher than the 2012 and 2013 lows. What I am starting to learn about volatility indexes is that it can take years to reach a new low after some sort of price shock. In the case of GVZ the memory of GLD dropping dramatically in April 2013 is fresh enough to keep traders on edge, even in a very quiet year for the underlying market.

For more insight and thoughts about 2014 join me for a 2014 volatility wrap up webcast this coming Monday (1/5/15) at noon Chicago time – register at www.cboe.com/webcasts

2014 Volatility Index and ETP Review

During the first half of 2014 I got to have several conversations about whether or not VIX was ‘broken’ since the average level for VIX was so low. Needless to say I haven’t fielded a single call or email about VIX being broken since October. 2014 was a pretty interesting year in volatility trading. More market participants have become involved in the volatility markets through VIX future, options, or ETPs.

The table below shows the year over year change for the S&P 500, volatility indexes that focus on the S&P 500, and several volatility oriented exchange traded products. Year over year changes in volatility indexes don’t mean anything to me as a single day (think the last day of 2014) can dramatically change the year over year number. The average for the year is a little more meaningful. I’ll get to that after discussing the ETPs in 2014.

Index ETPs - Corrected

 

Something that observant readers will notice in the table above is the performance of the long ETPs in 2014 (VXX, VIXY, VIIX). These three funds all lost about 26% so logic would dictate the place to be in 2014 were the short funds. Not so fast, XIV and SVXY were both down a little over 9% in 2014.   These long and short funds have a slightly different structure. The long funds are designed to give returns based on a strategy that is long the front two month VIX futures. The short funds are designed to return the daily inverse performance based on a strategy that is short the front two month VIX futures. The key word is daily. I find pictures help with these sort of concepts so I created the chart below. This depicts the return of $100 invested in VXX and SVXY on the last day of 2013 and held through the end of 2014. The bottom line shows the daily closing prices for VIX.

SVXY - VXX - VIX 2014 Early in 2014 VIX moved up to the low 20’s and VXX benefitted from the spike in volatility. SVXY lost value and it took several weeks for SVXY to move back to positive on the year. As volatility was very calm for the middle part of 2014 VXX moved much lower. The spikes toward the end of the year, benefitted VXX again, but not nearly to the extent needed to get back in the black for 2014. Those spikes had a negative impact on SVXY which resulted in a loss for 2014 as well.

Something else that stands out on the table is VVIX finishing the year well over 100. I know I said year over year doesn’t mean much.   The average VVIX for 2014 was about 83 which was slightly higher than the average in 2013, but lower than the average for the previous three years. The chart below shows the high – low range and average for VVIX from 2007 through 2014. The 2014 average doesn’t seem like a big deal, but the average for the fourth quarter of 2014 was over 97 – that’s a clear indication of excess nervousness in the equity markets as of late. Well over 100 going into 2015 may be a red flag for the equity market in the new year.

VVIX Annual Comp

One last thing I would like to show for 2014 is the term structure for S&P 500 volatility as indicated by the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve. The chart below shows three term structure curves – the max, min, and average curve for the year. It is always interesting to see just how high volatility gets relative to the average for the year. In what was really not that eventful of a year the range for VXST was from a low of 8.54 to 31.12 – almost a 400% range.

2014 Curves

For more insight and thoughts about 2014 join me for a 2014 volatility wrap up webcast this coming Monday (1/5/15) at noon Chicago time – register at www.cboe.com/webcasts

26 Volatility Indexes in 2014 – OVX (Oil VIX) Rose 183%; SKEW Index Averaged Highest-ever 129.8 – By Matt Moran

Dec. 31, 2014 – Highlights of the year 2014 in volatility include the following –

  • In the 2nd half of the year crude oil prices fell, and the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) rose 183% during the full year.
  • While the average daily close for the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) was 14.2 for the second year in a row, the CBOE SKEW Index had its highest-ever average daily closing value of 129.8 (this could indicate that there was heightened interest in using out-of-the-money (rather than at-the-money) S&P 500 (SPX) protective put options).
  • The CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index (VXEWZ) shot up to close at 72.83 on October 20, prior to the Brazilian presidential election.
  • Futures and options on the VIX Index both set new annual trading volume records for the eighth year in a row.

1. OIL AND GOLD VOLATILITY

In the first nine months of 2014, the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) never had a daily closing value above 21.8, but the OVX rose to its yearly high closing price of 57.55 on December 15 as oil prices fell. In 2014 the average daily closing values were 23.05 for the OVX Index and 16.57 for the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ).

1-OVX GVZ Dec 31

2. CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX

The VIX Index reflects the expected volatility of SPX options, and the highest daily closing value for VIX was 26.25 on October 15.

3-VIX in 2014

3. SKEW INDEX AND VVIX INDEX

The CBOE VIX of VIX Index (ticker VVIX) examined the prices of VIX options and the index reflects the expected 30-day volatility of the VIX Index.

While one could say that the CBOE SKEW Index is not a “volatility index” in the same way that the VIX and OVX are, the SKEW Index still can be very helpful to investors who are pricing index options at various strikes. CBOE SKEW Index values, which are calculated from weighted strips of out-of-the-money S&P 500 options, rise to higher levels as investors become more fearful of a “black swan” event — an unexpected event of large magnitude and consequence. The value of SKEW increases with the expected tail risk of S&P 500 returns. If there were no tail risk expectations and concerns, SKEW would be close to 100.

The CBOE SKEW Index reached 146.08 on Sept. 19, 2014, its highest level since October 1998.

4-SKEW & VVIXThe highest daily closing value for the VVIX Index in 2014 was 138.60 on December 12.

4. HIGHEST AVERAGE FOR CBOE SKEW INDEX IN 2014

In 2014 the SKEW Index set an all-time record for its highest average daily closing value in a year, with an average daily closing value of 129.8. The previous high average daily closing value for SKEW in a year was 122.5 in 2011.

4-SKEW avg per year5-VIX per yearIt is interesting to compare the above two column charts for the SKEW and VIX indexes.

5. TABLE WITH 26 VOLATILITY INDEXES

The table below shows that for the entire year of 2014 – 24 volatility indexes rose and two volatility indexes (GVZ and SRVX) fell.

2-Table Vol Indexes Dec 31 2014
6. MORE INFORMATION

Futures and options now are available on the VIX, OVX, GVZ, and other volatility indexes, and the SKEW Index can be helpful to those who are investing in SPX options. To learn more about the SKEW, VIX, OVX, and dozens of other volatility-related indexes, please visit www.cboe.com/volatility.

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