Sunday Night Trading of VIX and Stock Index Futures and Currencies During the Presidential Debate – By Matt Moran

October 9, 2016, 11:50 pm CT — Regarding the financial market movements Sunday night around and during the second presidential debate, below are some highlights.

VIX FUTURES

Trading volume for futures on the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) on Sunday night from 5:00 p.m. through 11:15 p.m. exceeded 2,250 contracts.

The chart below shows that the Sunday night prices for the October VIX futures (with an expiration date of October 19) were down 0.345 points at around 9:55 pm C.T. (when compared to the Friday night close).

    tw-8-vix-fut-9-50

The table below shows the 14 tickers and expiration dates for VIX futures.

9-vix-expirations

STOCK INDEX FUTURES  

A CNBC story stated that —

“… No clear winner emerged from the second U.S. presidential debate Sunday night, based on several analysts’ interpretation of market reaction — or lack thereof. … .U.S. stock index futures held slightly higher near earlier levels throughout the entire debate. S&P 500 futures were about 5 points higher and Dow Jones industrial average futures were about 31 points higher, as of 11:08 p.m. ET.”           

PESO, YUAN AND CRUDE OIL

A Bloomberg news story noted that —

“… Mexico’s peso pared its climb after Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton sparred in the second presidential debate. Crude extended losses and the yuan weakened to a six-year low.  The peso, seen as a bellwether for traders’ views on Trump’s prospects, added as much as 2 percent as the Republican candidate was questioned about a video in which he talked about women in vulgar terms, before trimming gains to 1.4 percent after the debate concluded …”

MORE INFORMATION

Please visit the VIX microsite at www.cboe.com/VIX for more information on VIX futures and options.

For an earlier blog that discusses market movements during the first presidential debate, please visit http://bit.ly/VIX-debate.

Will VIX Futures Prices Move During the Sunday Night Debate? – By Matt Moran

OCTOBER 7. 2016 – On the night of September 26 a debate-record 84 million people tuned in to watch the first of three U.S. Presidential debates. During the debate there were movements in the prices of futures on the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®), S&P 500® futures, and the Mexican peso (see below for a chart and more information).

If you would like to follow the movements of VIX futures during the upcoming Presidential debate on from 8:00 to 9:30 p.m. CT this Sunday, October 9, here are three resources for you –

AROUND-THE-CLOCK TRADING OF VIX FUTURES

The trading hours for VIX futures begin at 5:00 p.m. Chicago time on Sundays, and VIX futures are offered more than 23.5 hours a day during the trading week Last month the average daily volume for VIX futures during extended trading hours (from 3:30 p.m. to 8:30 a.m.) was 31,901 contracts. www.cboe.com/ETH.

1-vix-fut-eth-volume

EXPIRATION DATES FOR VIX FUTURES

At around noon Chicago time on Friday, October 7, the VIX Index spot price was 13.88, and the VIX futures prices are shown in the table below.

2-vix-fut-expirations-table

MARKET MOVEMENTS DURING THE FIRST DEBATE ON THE NIGHT OF SEPTEMBER 26

During the first presidential debate on September 26 (from 8:00 to 9:30 p.m. CT) –

  • VIX futures prices fell,
  • S&P 500 futures prices rose.
  • Mexican peso rose in value (vs. U.S. dollar).

As shown in the chart below, during the 90 minutes of the first debate, the VIX October futures fell by about 0.50 points. (Please note that the new trading day for VIX futures usually starts at 3:30 p.m. the previous calendar day, and so on the calendar night of September 26, the September 27 trading day already had begun).

3-vix-fut-on-sep-26

A 1290-word analysis by Professor Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan noted that —

” … During the debate, the overnight [stock index] futures markets rallied, raising the value of broad stock market gauges like the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index by two-thirds to three-quarters of a percentage point. This was a consequential move, … the rally occurred between 9 and 11 p.m. on a Monday, typically a fairly tranquil time and, in this case, a stretch in which there was no other important economic or financial news. … the rise in stock prices was unusually large for that particular time period — larger than during the same window on all but one of the 200 previous Mondays. It appears to be a statistically significant move … ”

Regarding the Mexican peso, a September 27 news story at http://money.cnn.com noted that —

“As Trump and Hillary Clinton sparred on live TV, one key financial barometer of the Republican nominee’s prospects started moving sharply: the Mexican peso soared more than 2% against the dollar. In recent weeks, the Mexican currency has been moving in the opposite direction to Trump’s poll numbers. As they have improved, the peso has dropped, hitting an all-time low against the dollar ahead of Monday night’s debate. Its sudden leap during the debate was a clear reaction to Trump’s performance, according to Ihab Salib, head of international fixed income at Federated Investors. …”

 CONCLUSION

To learn more about the ways in which VIX futures and options can be useful tools in portfolio management, please visit www.cboe.com/VIX.

Weekend Review – Volatility Indexes and ETPs – 10/2/2016

The VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT Curve is a consistent way to look at different S&P 500 Option Implied Volatility time frames.  All four indexes moved up a bit last week, with the curve shape maintaining a pretty steep shape.

vxst-vix-vxv-vxmt

The ETPs were a mixed bag last week.  VXX and the other long funds that focus on the short end of the curve were higher last week.  VXZ, which focuses on the longer end of the curve was lower, being a victim of the steep contango that has existed in the VIX curve for most of 2016.  SVXY and XIV were lower, but ZIV (inverse of VXZ) moved up a tad.

vxx-table

With nine months behind us, SVXY is up strong and both VXX and UVXY have had a tough year based on VIX at relatively low levels this year.

vxx-svxy-uvyx-ytd-performance

For the second week in a row individual stock implied volatility lead the charge higher with VXGOGL and VXAZN moving higher by over 20%.

volatility-indexes

Late Monday, with VXX around 35.60 and up 1.80 on the day a calendar spread came into the VIX pit using VXX options half the trade has expired as the VXX Sep 30th 37 Calls were sold at 0.71 and the VXX Oct 21st 37 Calls were purchased for 2.17 and a net cost of 1.46.  The first payoff diagram shows the result for the trade as of this past Friday.

vxx-po-1

Assuming no changes, the position is now long the VXX Oct 21st 37 Call at a cost of 1.42, which is a bit more than the cost of this call as of Friday.  The payout below is upon the option’s expiration and assuming that no other trades occur.  However, I wouldn’t be surprised if another shorter dated call is sold if VXX makes another move to the upside.

vxx-po-2

Weekend Review – VIX Options and Futures – 10/2/2016

The VIX curve did The Twist (cue Chuck Berry) as spot VIX rose 8% and the front month October contract was up by just over 1%.  Beyond the front month all things were red.

vix-curve-table

The highest closing level for VIX last week came on Monday with the spot index finishing the day at 14.50.  One trader had an expectation that this move up would very short lived and decided to sell a call spread with VIX Weeklys Options that expired on the open this past Wednesday.  Just a few minutes before the close there was a seller of the VIX Sep 28th 13.50 Calls at 1.17 who bought VIX Sep 28th 15.00 Calls 0.42 for a net credit of 0.75.  The payout diagram below assumes the trade was held through Wednesday settlement.

vix-po

For those that are aware that the corresponding VIX futures pricing comes into play with respect to VIX options pricing I’ll add that the Sep 28th VIX Future closed last Monday at 14.60, basically in line with spot VIX.  The risk reward of this trade was a gain of 0.75 or a loss of 0.75 with the break-even at 14.25.  I highlighted Wednesday’s VIX settlement on the payoff diagram below which was safely below the short strike of 13.50 in this trade at 13.05.

New Wilshire Study: BXMD and PUT Indexes Offered Higher Returns, Lower Volatility Over Three Decades

By Matt Moran

SEPT. 21, 2016 – Wilshire Associates recently was ranked as one of the world’s ten largest investment consultants, due to the fact that it had more than $1 trillion in worldwide institutional assets under advisement, according to the survey published in the Nov. 30, 2015 issue of Pensions & Investments.

A new study – “Three Decades of Options-Based Benchmark Indices with Premium Selling or Buying: A Performance Analysis – was released today. The study was commissioned by CBOE and authored by Wilshire Analytics’ Applied Research Group. It is the first major study that surveys 30 years of data related to benchmarks engaged in the buying and/or selling of index options.

Wilshire Analytics analyzed the performance of several indexes over a period of 30 years, from June 30, 1986 through June 30, 2016, including five indexes that sell and/or buy options on the S&P 500® (SPX) Index:

  • CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index (BXM)
  • CBOE S&P 500 30-Delta BuyWrite Index (BXMD)
  • CBOE S&P 500 Zero-Cost Put Spread Collar Index (CLLZ)
  • CBOE S&P 500 5% Put Protection Index (PPUT)
  • CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Index (PUT)

The performance of these indexes was compared with certain other key stock, bond and commodity indexes that represent asset classes typically found in the investment portfolios of institutions and individual investors.

KEY FINDINGS

Key findings of the 30-year study include:

  • Higher Absolute and Risk-Adjusted Returns: Two indexes that sold SPX options every month to collect option premium income – PUT and BXMD – both had higher absolute returns and higher risk-adjusted returns than the other indexes studied.
  • Lower Volatility: Each of the five option-based indexes had lower volatility than all the other indexes included in the study, other than the fixed-income index.
  • Less Downside Risk: The maximum drawdown for the options-based indexes was 24 percent lower, on average, than for the S&P 500 Index.
  • Market Capacity and Liquidity: The notional value of SPX options’ average daily volume grew significantly over the last 10 years; it was more than $200 billion for the 12 months ended June 2016, the most recent year studied.
  • Pension Plan Allocations: Analysis of actual pension plan allocations suggests plan sponsors would have benefited from the addition of index-based buy-write option strategies.

RETURNS AND VOLATILITY OVER 30 YEARS

As shown in the first charts below, over the three-decade period, the option-selling indexes (BXMD, PUT and BXM) all had higher returns than the option-buying index (PPUT) and the MSCI EAFE and S&P GSCI indexes. Index option-selling indexes can benefit from the fact that the implied volatility usually has exceeded realized volatility, as is shown in Exhibit 8 of the study.

1-returns-wilshire

2-volatility-by-wilshire

EFFICIENT FRONTIER

The five options-based indexes are shown in the triangle symbols on the Efficient Frontier chart.

3-efficient-frontier-wilshire

NEW HEAT MAP

A new “heat map” uses color coding to rank returns across asset class by year (within each column).

4-heat-map-1st

5-heat-map-2nd

 

Over the past 15 years, option-writing strategies, particularly the BXMD and PUT strategies, typically had above-average returns and were rarely among the lower-performing asset classes.  Other asset classes were occasionally top performers but also were ranked at or near the bottom more than once. Past performance is not predictive of future returns.  Sources:  Bloomberg, CBOE, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank and Wilshire Associates.

$200 BILLION IN AVERAGE DAILY NOTIONAL VOLUME FOR SPX OPTIONS

After hearing about the strong performance of certain CBOE benchmark indexes, institutional investors often ask me about market capacity for SPX options. The study presents a chart that shows that the estimated notional value of average daily volume in SPX options grew to more than $200 billion in the last 12 months studied.

 6-capacity-volume-vix-wilshire

 

CONCLUSION

For links to the entire new paper by Wilshire Analytics and to more information about CBOE benchmark indexes, please visit www.cboe.com/benchmarks.

 

 

Weekend Review – VIX Options and Futures – 9/11/2016

The streak of SPX doldrums came to an end on Friday with the orderly drop of over 50 points for which resulted in VIX rising to 17.50.  Everything worth noting happened on Friday which may have added to the angst that resulted in the S&P 500 closing near the daily lows and VIX closing near the daily highs.

VIX Curve Table

Early Friday when VIX was at 13.93 and the big move was just getting started there was a split strike trade that came into the pit.  With the October future at 16.35 a trader sold over 12,000 VIX Oct 13.50 Puts for 0.31 and then purchased the same number of VIX Oct 25 Calls for 0.64 and a net cost of 0.33.  The payout shows up below.

VIX PO

As noted at the beginning of this blog the October VIX contract settled at 17.875 or over 1.50 higher than when this trade was executed.  This led me to check closing prices for the two options in this spread.  The 13.50 Puts could be repurchased for 0.35 and the 25.00 Calls sold at 1.00.  Therefore, the spread that cost 0.33 to enter finished the day at 0.65 or a penny under a double.

Weekend Review – Volatility Indexes and ETPs – 9/11/2016

VXST more than doubled as a function of the index being depressed in front of the three-day weekend and then in reaction to Friday’s SPX sell off.  As would be expected, the rest of the VXST-VIX-VXV-VXMT curve moved higher as well, but outside of VXST relative to VIX we are still in a state of contango.

VXST VIX VXV VXMT

The 2.39% drop in the S&P 500 all came from Friday’s price action as did just about everything else on the table below.  Note that VXX rose 11% and UVXY gained over 22%, both doing what they were designed to do, allow traders the ability to benefit from quick spikes in volatility.

VXX Table

Despite the great week for VXX and UVYX both funds are still much lower on the year.  This time last week, SVXY YTD performance was up over 50% now the fund’s return stands at just over 31%.

VXX SVXY UVXY

As expected the leaders among the volatility indexes were related to broad based market indexes.  The VVIX move to over 110% is worth noting since that index has a relatively high levels for most of 2016 when compared to the historical range.  I did find it interesting that the only three indexes that lost value last week were currency related.

Vol Index Prices

Weekend Review – VIX Options and Futures 9/4/2016

VIX finished the week just under 12.  We can attribute this to a combination of the equity market being pleased by Friday’s August Non-Farm Payroll report along with the three-day weekend effect.  Note the September futures, which settle on the 21st moved lower, but held up a bit relative to spot VIX.  This is common regardless of the directional move out of the index, but is accentuated whenever we have a long weekend.

VIX Table Chart

Despite there only being one trading day (and an overnight) left until expiration, over 30,000 Sept 7th VIX options traded on Friday.  Almost 1/3rd of that volume was focused on the VIX Sep 7th 13 Calls.  Early in the day someone chose to sell these calls for 0.45 in several lots.  This transaction did not appear to be part of a spread trade so  I’m going with the payoff diagram below as a depiction of how this may work out on the open Wednesday.

VXI PO

Later in the day there was a sale of 3000 VIX Sep 7th 13 Calls down at 0.32.  I investigated a little and this appears to be part of a spread that also put on a bear call spread.  In addition to the previously mentioned transaction, the trader also sold 3000 of the VIX Oct 19th 13 Calls at 3.54 and then completed the spread by purchasing the VIX Oct 19th 20 Calls for 1.08.  I’m going to do my best to keep an eye out for more 3000 lot sales of short dated VIX 13 strike call options to see if this is the beginning of a progressive trade.

Weekend Review – Volatility Indexes and ETPs 9/4/2016

The VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve does what it normally does on a pre three-day weekend week and got steeper.  It’s been a while since I ran the numbers but I’m fairly certain VXST almost always drops before a holiday weekend and then rebounds when we all return to work refreshed and ready to trade.

VXST-VIX-VXV-VXMT

 

SKEW below 130 was the first thing that stood out to me on the table below.  A quick check and I saw that it had been consistently higher than 130 for the better part of August despite the 2016 average being close to 128.  Although at the lower end of this year’s range, VVIX at 81 is relatively high considering VIX finished the week below 12.

VXX Table

With VIX moving lower last week and the futures following the spot index lower the long ETPs had a rough week.  What’s bad for VXX and UVXY is good for SVXY which surpassed the 50% performance line for 2016.

SVXY VXX UVXY Performance

Looking across the range of volatility indexes you can see that most markets experienced an implied volatility drop.  The outlier was OVX which rose 7% last week.  If you are ever trying to find where there may be higher volatility the table below is taken directly from www.cboe.com/volatiltiy

Vol Index Prices Week over Week

When we see high commodity market implied volatility I always take things to the next step and check out the skew chart from my LiveVol pro platform.  Below is a chart of the option skew for October 7th USO options which is the market used to calculated OVX.  The underlying finished the week at 10.24 and I think it’s pretty obvious that implied volatility is higher on the downside than the upside.

USO Skew

Sept. 22 Webinar – Case Studies on Institutional Investor Use of VIX

On Thursday, September 22 at 2:00 p.m. E.T., S&P Dow Jones Indices and CBOE will co-host a complimentary webinar for financial professionals on the topic of — How are Institutional Investors Using VIX®?  Financial professionals who wish to register and see more information are welcome to visit this link — http://bit.ly/VIX-Sep22.

A - Sep 22 webinar speakers

The panel will cover:

  •       An introduction to the VIX index, its related tradable products, and its historical performance relative to the S&P 500
  •      Using VIX Index products as the basis for pure-play volatility strategies to manage risk, extract yield, or diversify portfolios
  •      First-hand experiences and case studies from asset owners and managers who use VIX Index products in their portfolios as a means to mitigate risk while capturing returns

You are welcome to submit your questions during the live Q&A session following the webinar.

**********

In several recent news clips financial professionals have comments on the possibility that the VIX Index might rise in coming months with possible interest rate changes and the U.S. presidential election.

This chart shows recent prices for the VIX Index and for select VIX futures; note that while the price for the VIX Index was 14.07, the price for the VIX future with the November 16 expiration was 17.85. During the webinar the institutional investors will discuss the pricing for VIX futures and options, and how these products are used in portfolio management.

B - VIX futures on Aug 31

Financial professionals who wish to register and see more information are welcome to visit this link — http://bit.ly/VIX-Sep22.

 

 

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