VIX and the Santa Claus Rally

A couple of days ago JJ Kinahan from TD Ameritrade and a good friend of The Options Institute wrote a blog for Forbes.  His blog was about the period of time between Christmas and New Year’s. In the financial markets world this is considered a bullish time for stocks and is often called the Santa Claus rally. His comments can be found at the link below.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jjkinahan/2014/12/22/volatility-update-santa-rally-or-early-vacation-for-the-big-guy/

Since everything I do begins and ends with VIX I decided to take a look at what VIX has done each year over this time period. I was honestly surprised by the results. I took the VIX closing price the day before Christmas and the closing price on the last day of the year for each year from 1990 to 2013.   If the expectation is that stock prices move higher over this time period, then we would also assume that VIX would be moving lower. That assumption made me do a double take when I complied the table below.

VIX Santa Rally

Note that only three of the twenty four years on this table saw VIX move lower. Part of this may be attributed to the holiday impact on VIX where some of the value drops due to an extra day and a half off for Christmas. However, there are several double digit gains on the table above and that’s more than just the extra days off. As President Reagan use to say, trust but verify. This time the verification process yielded some interesting results.

Trade Looking for Lower VIX into 2015

December VIX settlement was last week and traders are starting to look to next year. Late Monday afternoon one of these traders took a position looking for VIX to return to the low teens in early 2015.   With VIX around 15.70 and the January VIX future at a 0.75 premium to the index at 16.45 a trader came in and bought a Jan VIX 14 / 15 Put Spread. The specific trade was a purchase of 4500 of the VIX Jan 15 Puts at 0.95 and sale of 4500 VIX Jan 14 Puts at 0.46 and a net cost of 0.49. The payoff at expiration for this bear put spread appears below –

VIX po

January VIX settlement at or below 14.00 will result in a gain of 0.51 on this spread. A partial profit may result from settlement between 14.00 and 14.51. Over 14.51 this trade starts to turn into a loser with a maximum loss equal to the 0.49 paid for the spread.

Oil VIX Is Up 209% and Brazil VIX Is Up 45% in 2014 Y-T-D – By Matt Moran

Dec. 22, 2014 – During the financial crisis of 2008, many investors bemoaned the fact many asset classes fell as the correlations among several asset classes rose. Since 2008 investors have searched for investments that have diversification potential in times of market stress.

So far in 2014 (through December 22) –

  • The CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX) is up 209%,
  • The CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index (VXEWZ) is up 45%, and
  • Crude oil prices are down about 44%.

Here are the highest daily closing values in 2014 –

  • The CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX) closed at 57.55 on Dec. 15 as oil prices plummeted (the average daily close for the OVX this year is only 22.3), and
  • The CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index (VXEWZ) closed at 72.83 on October 20, before the presidential election in Brazil (the average daily close for the VXEWZ this year is 31.3),

Futures and options are available on the OVX, VXEWZ, VIX, and other volatility indexes; investors are urged to study the pricing and settlement features of volatility instruments before investing.

01--Oil OVX Global

1-1 VIX1-2 SKEW & VVIX

HAS VIX BEEN HIGH OR LOW IN 2014?

So far this year, the average daily closing value for the VIX Index was 14.1, and some observers have asked if VIX has been somewhat low in light of all the worldwide geopolitical uncertainties and tensions in 2014. During the years 1990 through 2013, the average daily closing values were 20.2 for VIX and 117.2 for CBOE SKEW Index. So far in 2014, the average daily closing values were 14.1 for the VIX Index, 10.6 for the (20-trading-day) historic volatility of the S&P 500 Index, and 129.7 for the CBOE SKEW Index. So while the VIX recently has been below its long-term average, it is worth noting that the historic volatility of the SPX usually has been even lower than the VIX in 2014, and in 2014 the SKEW Index has been about 12 points above its long-term average. So in 2014 one might infer that the demand for out-of-the-money SPX puts (and disaster insurance) probably has increased relative to demand for at-the-money SPX options.

TABLE WITH 22 VOLATILITY INDEXES

In the table below with 22 volatility indexes, four of teh indexes have risen more than 40% this year, but four of the indexes are down so far this year.  02-Table OVX Dec 22

MORE INFORMATION

CBOE Holdings offers many tools to manage portfolios in times of changing volatility. For more information on the indexes above, please visit www.cboe.com/volatility.

Last Week in VIX – 12/21/2014

The first chart in this blog is a bit out of place. I normally discuss the VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT term structure in the space where we review volatility index and ETP trading. However, after I completed that blog I considered taking a look at where we closed Friday versus the average for 2014. On the short end VXST is only 0.07 higher than the average for 2014, but this can still be considered relatively high since we are moving into a holiday shortened week. Volatility indexes are calculated based on calendar days and when there are market holidays it creates some downside pressure. This pressure shows up even more in VXST since it is measuring eight day implied volatility.   The rest of the curve is pretty elevated relative to this past year which, if correct in the extra concern, may not be a good sign for stocks in the first half of 2015.

VXST - VIX - VXV - VXMT 2014 Comparison

The VIX curve returned to normal for the holidays as the S&P 500 rallied 3.41% last week. January is almost at parity with VIX which indicates no risk premium was being paid to for VIX futures sellers or that there is little expectation of VIX moving up from current levels over the near term. I know that directly contradicts the first paragraph in this blog, but the markets probably don’t expect much over the next couple of (holiday impacted) weeks.

VIX Curve

Wednesday was December VIX expiration so the focus is all on 2015. One trader is looking to a VIX settlement in the teens or lower come January 21st.   Just a few minutes after the open on Thursday, with VIX at 17.15 and the January VIX future around 17.65 there was a broken wing butterfly that caught my eye. A trader sold the VIX Jan 15 Put at 0.89 and sold the VIX Jan 15 Call for 2.89. They completed this spread through purchasing a VIX Jan 14 Put at 0.48 and VIX Jan 23 Call at 1.05. The result is the payoff that shows up below –

VIX PO

Note that January VIX settlement anywhere below 17.25 results in a profit for this trade, the perfect storm is VIX settlement at 15.00 and a profit of 2.25.   Any settlement below 14.00 results in a payout 1.25. The risk to this trade is a similar situation to December with January VIX settlement at 23.00 or higher. In this case this broken wing butterfly would result in a loss of 5.75.

Last Week in Gold and Oil Volatility – 12/21/2014

Gold volatility represented by GVZ dropped 5% last week and the price of gold as represented by GLD was down 2.25%. Now on to what people care about these days –

The week over week price change for the United States Oil ETF (USO – 21.96) comes nowhere near telling the story from last week. From Friday to Friday USO was up 0.03 from 21.93 to 21.96. So why in the world is the OVX curve in backwardation and why was OVX up over 10% to close over 50.00 for the first time in over 3 years? Why, when I ask rhetorical questions do I automatically think of Aliens?

The reason for elevated OVX has to do with the path USO took last week. Twice last week, Tuesday and again on Thursday, USO was down over 6% for the week. That sort of price action will get traders on edge and that shows up in the term structure chart below.

GVZ OVX

At least one trader is expecting a rebound in the price of oil as represented by the performance of USO. Relatively early on Friday there was a trader who purchased over 10,000 USO Apr 26 Calls at 0.72 who also sold 10,000 Apr 30 Calls at 0.22 for a net cost of 0.50. To reach the maximum profit of 3.50 this trade needs to see USO gain 36% over a four month period.  I decided to look back four months and back in August USO was in the mid-30’s. Although it appears to be a pretty big move, relative to how the price of oil has moved lately and the market outlook based on the elevated levels of OVX it is not out of the realm of possibilities.

USO PO

Last Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs – 12/21/2014

Santa Claus did not disappoint and his annual rally took the S&P 500 up 3.41% last week.   That move took the air out of the four S&P 500 related volatility indexes with VXST leading the way and losing over 40%.   The curve shift formed the week over week ‘horn’ which I guess is appropriate for the season.

VXST - VIX - VXV - VXMT

Sticking with a theme I’ve been all over this quarter the S&P 500 is only a few points from setting another record high. Despite this high level of the S&P 500, VIX is at 16.49 is over 2 points higher than the average close for 2014.  This  shows that despite this week’s monster rally concern remains in the pricing of SPX option. Another volatility index that is at high levels is the VIX of VIX. VVIX closed at 99.17 which is the middle of the historical range, but much higher than levels we have become accustomed to in this bull market. The chart below shows the daily prices for VVIX in 2014.

VVIX Daily 2014

I publish the table below each week, but leave out the far right column.  The main reason I do not include the year to date numbers is because I think year over year performance is useless when looking at volatility indexes.  However it is useful when looking at the ETPs.   I wanted to include it this week to show something that is interesting about the performance of the various ETPs in 2014. Note as of Friday all the volatility oriented exchange traded products have lost value in 2014. This is a function of the leveraged long and inverse funds both matching daily performance with compounding coming into the equation when we experience volatility events to the upside or a quick move lower. The trade example from Friday shows that at least one trader does not expect all the funds to be lower for long.

Index ETPs

Friday morning someone came in and did a spread trade that appears to be bearing on VIX which of course is bullish on the stock market. The trade is bullish on SVXY which is designed to return the inverse of the daily returns that one would get from VXX. Therefore, low volatility is good for SVXY, low volatility in VIX normally comes from a bullish stock market move.

I’ll go slow, because there are many moving parts here, but when SVXY was trading at 64.30 there was a seller of SVXY Jan 17th 80 Puts for 15.99 who also bought the same number of SVXY Jan 17th 60 Calls at 8.23 and a net credit of 7.76. The payoff diagram below is a good depiction of what the end goal is for this trade –

SVXY PO Diagram

The goal is to have SVXY as high as possible on January 17th of next year, but as long as SVXY is higher than 66.12 the trade make some sort of profit. Being short the 80 put and long the 60 call results in a 2 for 1 point move between 60 and 80. Once the put is out of the money, the call continues to move higher on a 1 for 1 basis. The risk is a quick move higher in VIX that takes the front two month futures contracts along with it.

Last Week in VIX – 12/14/2014

Nothing like a 3% drop to provide a year-end boost to VIX, especially when it appeared no one was expecting it. Last Friday we got through the employment report unscathed and the result was a VIX close under 12. The last potential big “known unknown” this year comes Wednesday afternoon with the FOMC announcement. As a friendly reminder, December VIX futures and options settle on the open Wednesday so any trades based on an FOMC announcement reaction should focus on January contracts.

The curve went from textbook contango to backwardation (when looking at the index and front two month futures). Do note that the farther dated contracts were up over 10% across the board last week. This shows there is a shift in longer term thinking about the health of the US equity markets. So far in 2014 the average closing price for VIX has been around 14. The farther part of the curve indicates the average in 2015 is expected to be higher than in 2014.

VIX Curve

On Wednesday this past week VIX was up 20% on the day rising from 15.35 to 18.53. The December future rose from 14.90 to close at 17.40 that day as well. Someone correctly decided that the upside move was not over and just a few minutes before the 3:15 closing time for VIX options they purchased several (in the 1000’s) VIX Dec 17 Calls at 1.60 and sold the same number of VIX Dec 18 Calls at 1.25 and a net cost of 0.35. With the December future finishing the week at 19.60 and the spot index at 21.08 so far this trade is looking pretty smart.

VIX PO

Last Week in Oil and Gold Volatility – 12/14/2014

I recall when I totally ignored Oil in this space for gold, my how things have changed.   USO dropped over 12% last week which places the fund down about 38% in 2014. The result for OVX, as seen on the right side below, was a jump of 45% and a move near all-time highs. The front month December future, which settles on the open Wednesday morning, finished the week at a 2.72 point discount to the index, which indicates to me that a quick move down in OVX (and stabilization of oil prices) is not anticipated for early next week. GVZ moved below 20 as everyone paid attention to the oil market.

GVX OVZ Curve

I’ve never been an investigative journalist or played one on TV. However, I know (from TV dramas) that in order to find out what is really going on you need to ‘follow the money’.  This theory often leads me to looking at option trades as when someone puts on a position they are risking money based on an outlook. This led me to check into trading in USO options this past week to get a long term clue as to what traders may be thinking about the price of oil. Monday, when USO was trading around 24.00 someone came in and purchased some longer dated put options on the fund. The specific trade was a purchase of the USO Jul 21 Puts at 1.30. USO needs to drop from 24.00 to 19.70 or about 15% over the next seven months for this trade to result in a profit. However, as we all know, things got ugly for oil last week with USO finishing the week at 21.93. This put buyer is looking pretty and still has a ton of time for USO to continue to move lower. Also, checking quotes, the USO Jul 21 Puts were bid at 2.00 late Friday for a quick unrealized profit of 0.70.

USO PO

Last Week in Volatility Indexes and ETPs – 12/14/2014

The VXST – VIX – VXV – VXMT curve shift was the most dramatic change I have seen since writing these blogs. Of course VXST is just a little over a year old so there’s not too much history for comparison. I am more intrigued by the right side of the curve with VXV and VXMT in the 20’s. As a reminder VXV is a 3 month version of VIX and VXMT measures 6 month implied volatility. Those two indexes moving above 20 and in line with VIX indicate some real concern for the S&P 500 going into next year.

VXST - VIX - VXV - VXMT Curve

Many things stand out from the market action last week. One that is almost over the top is VVIX (the VIX of VIX) finishing the week at 138.60. VVIX data goes back to 2007 and Friday’s closing level was the 3rd highest VVIX close over that time period.  The chart below shows the complete history for VVIX. When this index is high (like now) it indicates increased demand for VIX options.  Since over 70% of VIX option volume was on the call side Friday we can safely say that this elevated level for VVIX show strong demand for VIX calls.

VVIX Daily Closing Prices – 2007 – Present

VVIX History

VXX and the long ETPs gained about 30% on the week, the two leveraged ETPs moved up close to 60%, and the two inverse funds were down about 25%. Compounding does funny things to the performance of inverse and leveraged funds. For instance for 2014 VXX is down 20%, UVXY (2 x long) is down 55%, and SVXY (short) is down 12%.

Indexes ETPsLate Wednesday, with UVXY up 3.16 on the day trading at 23.18 a share, someone came in with a timely buy of the UVXY Dec 12th 22 Calls at 1.98. Imagine buying calls on a market that is up about 15% on the day. Take that a second step and imagine buying calls that expire in 2 days on a market that is already up 15% for the day. Kind of a risky proposition, but not in the world of double leveraged volatility ETF’s. Take a look at the payoff diagram below where I highlight UVXY’s price at the time of Wednesday afternoon’s trade along with where UVXY settled on Friday (when the options expired).   Not too shabby for a two day trade.

UVXY PO

Last Week in VIX – 12/7/2014

VIX drifted to close under 12.00 for the first time since late August as the S&P 500 made more new highs. The leftover fear from the market’s dive in October seems to be gone just like all our Thanksgiving leftovers. At least one derivative strategist thinks lower VIX levels are on the near term horizon. Buzz Gregory from Goldman Sachs was featured in Barron’s this weekend saying his models point to VIX around 10.60 before 2014 is done. The trades executed last week and discussed in a previous blog and at the end of this posting match up well with this forecast.

VIX PADespite the prediction of lower levels for VIX and the S&P 500 continuing to make new highs, the curve remains fairly steep. I checked the economic calendar and there does not appear to be any more major ‘known unknowns’ coming up before December expiration. Despite that the December contract, which usually has a bit of a headwind due to the seasonal holiday effect on VIX remains at a premium.

VIX Curve

Early last week the discussion in the volatility world was all about a large VIX put buyer on Tuesday. Someone came in to the VIX market and purchased 175,000 VIX Dec 12.50 Puts for 0.13. This was mentioned in the Barron’s article referenced above and blogged about in this space as well. Since then another big put buyer showed up on Friday. There’s no way to know if it is the same player, but the numbers are kind of ironic. Someone purchased 175,000 VIX Dec 11.50 Puts for 0.05 just before lunchtime. The payoff diagram, if held to expiration, appears below.

VIX Fri Long P Payoff

I was on the road Friday and when I saw big volume in the VIX Dec 11.50 Puts my first thought was the buyer from earlier in the week was offsetting some of the cost of those 12.50’s and legging into a bear put spread. After making a couple of calls that did not appear to be the case and this trade was a customer buying the 11.50’s. VIX at 11.45 at expiration would result in break even, but VIX at 11.45 at expiration would result in a pretty nice payday for the buyer of the 12.50’s.  If the open interest for both the 12.50’s and 11.50’s remains around current levels I will definitely be keeping a close eye on VIX settlement the morning of December 17th

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